Tobacco control

The tobacco industry often states that tobacco control policies, like taxation, display ban and plain packaging will cause an increase in the availability of black market tobacco. In Australia, there are varying reports and estimates as to the extent of black market tobacco: a 2015

KPMG report states that 14.5% of tobacco smoked is illicit (more than 1 in 7 cigarettes), while the 2013 National Drug Strategy Household Survey that found that while 16.5% of Australian smokers age 14+ had ever smoked unbranded tobacco, also called chop-chop, only 0.8% used it more than half the time.

Scenario: The government wishes to implement an increase on tobacco tax. You are asked to analyse the evidence and provide an assessment of how large the black market for tobacco is likely to be in Australia. Using the above reports provide a critique of the quality of the evidence and how likely the findings are to reflect the reality of the black market. What are your key messages and advice to government based on these findings?

(No need to be written in formal essay format just concentrate on the requests and the question).